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A second shop doesn't fail on demand. It fails on the months in between.

Opening it

The ramp

The cash gap

Peak cash needed
$63,125
Deepest point: month 5
First profitable month
Month 6
Revenue covers fixed costs
Paid back by
> 18 months
Cumulative cash back above zero

You need $63,125 in hand, not $45,000. The build-out is only the start — the months between opening and a full book are what actually drain the account, and they bottom out around month 5.

Month by month, with the cumulative position in the right-hand column.
MonthRevenueNetCumulative
1$2,500-$6,500-$51,500
2$3,938-$5,063-$56,563
3$5,375-$3,625-$60,188
4$6,813-$2,188-$62,375
5$8,250-$750-$63,125
6$9,688$688-$62,438
7$11,125$2,125-$60,313
8$12,563$3,563-$56,750
9$14,000$5,000-$51,750
10$14,000$5,000-$46,750
11$14,000$5,000-$41,750
12$14,000$5,000-$36,750
13$14,000$5,000-$31,750
14$14,000$5,000-$26,750
15$14,000$5,000-$21,750
16$14,000$5,000-$16,750
17$14,000$5,000-$11,750
18$14,000$5,000-$6,750
How the math works

The model starts the cumulative position at negative the opening cost — money spent before a single cat walks in.

Revenue ramps in a straight line from month 1 to your mature figure over the months-to-mature you set, then holds flat. A straight line is a simplification, but it is an honest one: real ramps are lumpier and usually slower.

Net each month = revenue − monthly fixed costs. Fixed costs bill in full from month one, which is exactly the asymmetry that creates the gap.

Cumulative is the running sum of those nets against the opening cost. Its lowest point is the peak cash needed; the month it crosses back above zero is when the location has paid you back everything it took.

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Common questions

What is the cash gap?

It is the deepest point your bank balance reaches after you open. Every month the new location bills rent, payroll and utilities in full, while revenue is still climbing toward a full book. Those shortfalls accumulate on top of what you already spent on the build-out, and the low point of that running total is the cash you have to have available. It is almost always much larger than the opening cost alone.

Why is the peak cash needed bigger than my build-out budget?

Because the build-out is only the first withdrawal. A location that opens quiet and fills over six to twelve months loses money every one of those months, and each loss stacks on the last. Budgeting the build-out and nothing else is the single most common way a second shop with real demand still closes.

How should I estimate the revenue ramp?

Use your own first location if you have the history — what month one actually looked like versus month twelve is the best data anyone can give you. If you do not have it, be pessimistic: set month one low and the months-to-mature long, then see whether the gap is still survivable. A plan that only works on an optimistic ramp is not a plan.

What if it never turns positive?

Then the mature revenue does not clear the fixed costs, and the calculator will say so. That is not a ramp problem you can wait out — it means the rent, payroll or pricing at that location has to change before opening is viable at all. Better to find that here than in month nine.

Does this replace a real financial projection?

No. It models one thing well — cumulative cash position against a linear revenue ramp — and deliberately ignores seasonality, financing terms, tax timing and one-off costs. Use it to decide whether the idea clears the bar, then build the full projection with your accountant before you sign a lease.